Budapest Telegraph

Fewer, older Hungarians by 2060

Monday Aug 17, 2015

Gergely Csiki | Source: portfolio.hu

By 2060 the population of Hungary (9.9 million today) might fall by 2 million, every third Hungarian might be over 65 and the number of childless families might steeply rise.

The Demographic Research Institute of the Central Statistical Office has issued the three-yearly Demographic Portrait of Hungary 2015. (See its full pdf version in Hungarian here.)

The size of a population depends on the number of live births (which in turn depend on the number of women in fertile age and their readiness to have a child), the number of deaths and the balance of international migration. Statistician Erzsébet Földházi has said at the book launch that while the positive balance of international migration reduced Hungary's natural population decline between 2001 and 2011, since then the balance of international migration has become negative in Hungary.

 

 

Statisticians Zsolt Spéder and Balázs Kapitány stress the negative consequences of the fact that a growing number of Hungarian women give life to their first child later than ever before: in their early 30s.

Childlessness has been on the rise. The census of 2011 shows that in Budapest as many as a quarter of the college/university graduate women plan to remain childless!

Due to the aging of the Hungarian population, by 2060 the old age dependency ratio (60+ years old in % of 20-59 years old) might soar from 0.24 in 2011 to 0.6. By that time there might be fewer than two persons in the active age for every elderly citizen. It therefore seems to be inevitable to overhaul the Hungarian pension system. In plain English it means the raising of the retirement age.

For the full Hungarian article with baffling charts, click here.



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